Version History: Signal vs Noise: How We Decide What Actually Matters

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Changelog

DateSummary
27 Mar 202627 Mar 2026 – NYT AI-generated opinion pieces finding extends the signal-degradation pattern from HN comments and academic peer review to mainstream journalism.
26 Mar 202626 Mar 2026 – ARC-AGI-3 released (421 HN pts, 265 comments); live instance of the benchmark filter and practitioner signal heuristic operating just below the strict 500-point threshold, with comment quality carrying the signal weight.
25 Mar 202625 Mar 2026 – OpenAI shuts down Sora (780 HN pts, 573 comments) three months after a reported $1B Disney deal; live case of the announcement-gap pattern and the ‘so what’ test operating in reverse.
24 Mar 202624 Mar 2026 – iPhone 17 Pro runs 400B MoE model on-device (641 HN pts, 284 comments) at 0.6 t/s; practitioner thread interrogates the gap between capability claim and usability, a live case of the ‘so what’ test and practitioner signal heuristic operating simultaneously.
23 Mar 202623 Mar 2026 – Walmart ChatGPT checkout conversion data (3x worse than standard site) lands on HN with practitioner discussion; live example of the ‘so what’ test filtering hype from outcomes.
22 Mar 202622 Mar 2026 – Quiet day, thesis holds.
21 Mar 202621 Mar 2026 – OpenCode open-source AI coding agent hits 882 points and 402 HN comments, a live practitioner signal heuristic example reinforcing the high-points-plus-substantive-comments filter.
20 Mar 202620 Mar 2026 – Quiet day, thesis holds.
19 Mar 202619 Mar 2026 – ICML desk-rejects 2% of submissions for LLM use in peer review; extends signal-degradation pattern from HN to academic sources.
18 Mar 202618 Mar 2026 – Quiet day, thesis holds.
17 Mar 202617 Mar 2026 – Quiet day, thesis holds.
16 Mar 202616 Mar 2026 – Quiet day, thesis holds.
15 Mar 202615 Mar 2026 – Quiet day, thesis holds.
14 Mar 202614 Mar 2026 – 1M context GA for Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 lands on HN with 804 points and 315 comments, a live example of the practitioner signal heuristic in action.
13 Mar 202613 Mar 2026 – Quiet day, thesis holds.
12 Mar 202612 Mar 2026 – HN community pushback on AI-generated comments (3,701 pts) is a live data point on practitioner signal degradation; METR SWE-bench finding reinforces benchmark-without-context filter.
11 Mar 2026Quiet day, thesis holds.
10 Mar 2026Quiet day, thesis holds.
9 Mar 2026Quiet day, thesis holds.
8 Mar 2026Quiet day, thesis holds.
7 Mar 2026Quiet day, thesis holds.
6 Mar 2026GPT-5.4 practitioner signal; 406.fail shows noise problem expanding to code contributions.
5 Mar 2026Alibaba Qwen leadership departure – practitioner signal for open weights users.
4 Mar 2026Added: JVG quantum algorithm watch item, SteerEval controllability benchmark, UniG2U-Bench multimodal finding, Knuth “Claude’s Cycles” signal
2 Mar 2026Initial publication

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